TRADE THE ELECTIONS

Macron and Le Pen advance to the second round

On the 24th of April, risk appetite dominated the financial community, while the euro opened with a large positive gap following the outcome of the first round of the French election. The two candidates that qualified for the second round, scheduled on the 7th of May, are Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. The market reaction may have been fueled by the fact that in practically every poll for the second round, Macron is leading the Eurosceptic Le Pen by a significant margin.

This implies that market participants may have already begun pricing in a Le Pen loss in the run-off and therefore, a lower probability of any “Frexit” referendum. Now, the focus turns to new opinion polls regarding the second round. The key risk that could reverse the current market sentiment is any new polls that show Le Pen closing the gap on Macron.

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